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@theMarket: The Market's Line in the Sand
By Bill Schmick,
02:31PM / Saturday, May 30, 2020
Over the last two weeks, as Americans returned to work, the stock market climbed rapidly. It has now reached, and breached, an important historical technical indicator. If it can remain above it, investors will begin to believe that the worst is over.      The S&P 500 Index (as opposed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average) is what most professionals consider the benchmark index. This week, buyers pushed that index above the 3,000 level for the first time since the pandemic caused the markets to crash back in March. Why is that important?   That is the level that coincides with what is called the Two Hundred Day Moving Average (200 DMA). The 200 DMA

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The Independent Investor: The Culling of America
By Bill Schmick,
04:45PM / Thursday, May 28, 2020
As the death toll attributed to the coronavirus breached 100,000 in the Unites States this week, among the hardest hit Americans are those in the elderly population. The numbers simply illustrate what we all know. Eighty percent of the known fatalities were at least 65 years old. As such, the virus appears to be very good at selective slaughter.   As one of those who are most susceptible to dying from this virus, I have done a lot of soul searching over our future.  Today, I will begin to share some of these thoughts. Aside from the human loss, for example, what potential impact will this pandemic have on health care costs in the future?   Today, according

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@theMarket: Memorial Day Markets
By Bill Schmick,
03:48PM / Friday, May 22, 2020
As we begin the Memorial Day weekend that usually launches the nation's summer season, investors are anxious to discover if Americans will ignore CDC warnings, and go back to their old ways of celebrating the holiday. And if they do, will new cases of COVID-19 spike?   The re-opening of much of America this week had been met with some celebratory gains in the stock market, but as I predicted, it has been an up and down week, despite the gain. The S&P 500 benchmark Index actually "kissed" 3,000 before falling back the following day. It was a first tentative probe of that level since the March declines.   However, if the S&P 500 Index can get

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The Independent Investor: Chinese Checkers
By Bill Schmick,
05:15PM / Thursday, May 21, 2020
If you are wondering why China is suddenly back in the news on various political and economic fronts, look no further than the November elections. America needs a scapegoat for all the pain and suffering we have endured during this pandemic. The world's second-largest economy is an easy target.   There is no dispute; if we want to cast blame on the country that originated the coronavirus, we know it originated in Wuhan, China. At the time, the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the federal government, the White House, and the world at large, all applauded China's efforts to contain the virus. Back then (a few short months ago),

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@theMarket: Something Off in Bond Versus Stock Market Outlooks
By Bill Schmick,
05:34PM / Friday, May 15, 2020
Given the recent gains in the stock market over the last month or so, it is clear that stock market participants believe that the country will be back on its feet in no time. Over in the fixed income space, it is another story entirely. The question is which market will be right?   The betting in the bond market is that U.S. interest rates are not only going to zero, but there is a high probability that America, like Europe and Japan, will soon see negative rates, as early as next year. Six months ago, that was unthinkable.   On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a virtual speech at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. He said, "The

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