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@theMarket: Markets Celebrate Fourth of July
By Bill Schmick,
10:43AM / Friday, July 03, 2020
The continuing gain in jobs cheered equity markets on Thursday, just before the holiday weekend. Given the surge in virus cases in more than half of the United States at the same time, some investors were dumbfounded. They just don't get it.   The nation added 4.8 million jobs in June, which was better than expected. It was the second month in a row that the employment data surprised investors by beating expectations. Remember, however, that this data is backward looking. The bounce back in the economy as a result of re-opening businesses resulted in these upside labor surprises. Readers should expect those employment gains to moderate next month for some obvious

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@theMarket: The Virus Versus the Fed
By Bill Schmick,
05:22PM / Friday, June 26, 2020
Bulls and bears are in a tussle. Market averages reflect the battle that is moving stocks down, up, and then sideways throughout the week. It is a phase where investors are in a data-dependent mood and the data isn't all that good.   The bears are watching the COVID-19 cases climb higher every day, which threatens to trash their expectations for a "V" shaped recovery. The bulls, meanwhile, aren't too worried. They are banking on the Federal Reserve Bank's promises to keep pouring added stimulus support into the financial markets just in case the virus pushes the economy further toward the brink.   It did not have to be this

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@theMarket: Markets Fear New Virus Surge
By Bill Schmick,
09:15AM / Saturday, June 13, 2020
Thursday happened to be one of the worst days for the market all year. Stock indexes dropped between 5-6 percent in the blink of the eye as the number of COVID-19 cases spiked higher in several states. Was that simply an excuse to sell, or should we be worried about a second surge?   As far as a second surge is concerned, I don't know what Wall Street is talking about. We are still in the initial phase of the pandemic. All that has happened is that a number of states are playing catch up with ground zero states like New York, New Jersey and California. Of course, it doesn't help that most states, like Florida, Texas, Arizona, Mississippi, Alabama, etc., have all but

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@theMarket: The Market's Line in the Sand
By Bill Schmick,
02:31PM / Saturday, May 30, 2020
Over the last two weeks, as Americans returned to work, the stock market climbed rapidly. It has now reached, and breached, an important historical technical indicator. If it can remain above it, investors will begin to believe that the worst is over.      The S&P 500 Index (as opposed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average) is what most professionals consider the benchmark index. This week, buyers pushed that index above the 3,000 level for the first time since the pandemic caused the markets to crash back in March. Why is that important?   That is the level that coincides with what is called the Two Hundred Day Moving Average (200 DMA). The 200 DMA

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@theMarket: Memorial Day Markets
By Bill Schmick,
03:48PM / Friday, May 22, 2020
As we begin the Memorial Day weekend that usually launches the nation's summer season, investors are anxious to discover if Americans will ignore CDC warnings, and go back to their old ways of celebrating the holiday. And if they do, will new cases of COVID-19 spike?   The re-opening of much of America this week had been met with some celebratory gains in the stock market, but as I predicted, it has been an up and down week, despite the gain. The S&P 500 benchmark Index actually "kissed" 3,000 before falling back the following day. It was a first tentative probe of that level since the March declines.   However, if the S&P 500 Index can get

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