Sometimes, investors are so focused on the trees that they miss the forest entirely. Take the U.S. dollar, for example. It has been declining at an alarming rate, yet no one seems to care.
Today, investors are occupied by a number of trees — earnings, stock prices, dividends, earnings results — that a weakening currency is almost an afterthought. Unfortunately, if the dollar continues to weaken, it could radically change your investment choices.
Most readers, in general, believe a strong dollar reflects a strong economy. The fact that it makes our exports more expensive, and imports cheaper, is also true. A strong dollar, in the past, has also been a safe haven for overseas investors, who normally rush to buy the greenback when calamity threatens their own country.
There is also a relationship between the dollar, other currencies, and interest rates. If one country's sovereign debt is yielding more (or less) than another country's debt, then, all else being equal, investors will seek out and purchase the higher-yielding currency. That has been the case here in the U.S., where our higher yields have kept foreigners purchasing dollars in order to buy our bonds for the last several years.
The pandemic has changed that. The efforts by our Federal Reserve Bank to support the economy (by flooding the financial markets with money) has drastically reduced the difference in yield between America, Japan, and Europe. In addition, our deficit, as a result of all the tax cuts and spending throughout the Trump Administration, is starting to alarm investors around the globe. There is a fear that the Fed will need to print much more money (debase the currency) in order to fund the U.S. budget and deal with the enormous debt load we face.
At the same time, all that stimulus money had led some investors to believe that inflation is a much more likely bet in the future. That is a problem, since inflation destroys the purchasing power of a currency. As prices of goods and services rise, it takes more and more dollars to purchase them. It is, for example, why gold and other precious metals, along with base metals like copper, have begun to increase in price this year.
There are also doubts growing about how "safe" the dollar really is. The fact that the country is in disarray and deeply divided has not been lost on both our allies and foes. It is common knowledge, except in some parts of this country, that the Trump administration not only failed miserably in dealing with the pandemic, but has taken the tactic of claiming that the pandemic is overblown and not to be taken seriously. For the first time in recent history, foreign countries are barring Americans from entering their countries.
Many on Wall Street see the dollar declining further. I believe they are correct. If it does, there are some obvious beneficiaries that investors may want to examine. I have already mentioned commodities, like gold, silver, platinum, and copper, that normally rise in price as the dollar declines. Many emerging market economies are also based on their abundant natural resources. They too would benefit greatly from a falling dollar.
Oil normally would benefit as well, but I believe the price of oil will be held back by the pandemic in the months ahead. The demand for oil is correlated with mobility. Mobility worldwide, in the form of driving, flying, shipping, etc., has declined drastically due to the pandemic. In order for the oil price to rise, I believe, we need to beat the coronavirus first with a cure, or at least an effective vaccine. That may not be available until next year at the earliest.
Bill Schmick is now the 'Retired Investor.' After working in the financial services business for more than 40 years, Bill is paring back and focusing exclusively on writing about the financial markets, the needs of retired investors like himself, and how to make your last 30 years of your life your absolute best. You can reach him at firstname.lastname@example.org or leave a message at 413-347-2401.
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