@theMarket: Stocks Shrug Off Rising InflationBy Bill Schmick,
11:40AM / Saturday, December 14, 2024 | |
New highs continue as equities ignore the inflation data and focus instead on the prospects of the next administration. Wall Street consensus is that the upside in stocks should continue at least until the new year.
As a contrarian investor, I often disagree with the consensus view but not this time. Last week I explained how global money flows usually support the markets and create the Santa Claus rally. This period of good cheer and higher prices should extend into mid-January.
This week, the most recent data on inflation confirmed my fears that we have not seen a bottom in inflation. Back in September, I predicted that inflation would begin to rise again, 0 Comments
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@theMarket: The Santa Claus Rally and Money FlowsBy Bill Schmick,
03:49PM / Friday, December 06, 2024 | |
Each year from roughly the end of the second week of December through the second week in January the stock market rises most of the time. This year, expect a similar occurrence.
There are plenty of explanations for why this occurs. Many believe it is simply the good cheer the holidays bring to the markets. Others point to the additional spending triggered by holiday shopping, while some argue it is because institutional investors buy stocks before going on their Christmas break.
For me, it comes down to the flow of funds in and out of financial markets. Every year, for many reasons the flow of funds into the financial markets increases at the end and 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Holiday Cheer Lead Stocks HigherBy Bill Schmick,
03:49PM / Friday, November 29, 2024 | |
Scott Bessant at Treasury, threats of day-one tariffs on trading partners, and calls for another end-of-year rally buoyed markets. It is a seasonally bullish time for the equity markets with Christmas around the corner.
By now, you have probably heard that hedge fund manager Bessant will take the reins at the U.S. Treasury in January. Markets cheered that news. Most market participants believe Bessant is the man best suited for that post. Investors hope he will be market-friendly and a voice of moderation in the new Trump administration.
But before Bessant or anyone else gets carried away with the idea that Trump has lost that loving feeling he has for 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Stocks Should Climb into ThanksgivingBy Bill Schmick,
01:57PM / Friday, November 22, 2024 | |
Last week, traders made profits from the Trump trade. This week they reversed their positions. I expect further upside into the Thanksgiving holiday.
The market's performance was even more impressive considering the disappointing earnings from the number one AI player, Nvidia. The semiconductor giant reported stellar third-quarter earnings this week, but they were just not good enough to keep the stock's upside price momentum going.
Company management said supply chain issues reduced the growth rate in sales to the slowest in seven quarters. All that means, in my opinion, is that revenue will be boosted down the road when the bottlenecks are 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Profit-Taking Trims Post-Election GainsBy Bill Schmick,
03:03PM / Friday, November 15, 2024 | |
A 5 percent gain in nine days on the benchmark S&P 500 Index was met by profit-taking. Traders booked gains in Trump trades as some had second thoughts about continued upside. Who can blame them?
The conviction by many that happy days are here again (or will be by next year) sent markets through the roof in a frenzy of FOMO-generated trades. Technology took a back seat for a change as small-cap stocks soared on the belief that tariffs would force consumers to buy made-in-America products from American companies.
Smaller capitalization companies are distinctly American and are listed on the Russell 2,000 Index. Traders know that a good 40 percent of these 0 Comments
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