@theMarket: Oil Prices Boost Inflation But Don't Deter InvestorsBy Bill Schmick,
10:26AM / Saturday, September 16, 2023 | |
Stocks did remarkably well this week considering the macroeconomic data. That could be signaling further upside soon for the financial markets.
The decline in the inflation rate over the past six months has been encouraging. However, the recent climb in oil and gasoline prices threatens to put a crimp in the trend of declining inflation.
As I have written many times before, oil is the fuel that powers the global economy. It is involved in every stage of production and as such, its price has an enormous influence on the rate of inflation. Thanks to production cuts by OPEC-plus over the last few months, the price of oil has risen from roughly $65 a barrel to 0 Comments
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@themarket: Markets in a Topping ProcessBy Bill Schmick,
10:37AM / Saturday, August 26, 2023 | |
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that he was "prepared to raise rates further" at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Investors who were hoping to hear a more dovish outlook were disappointed.
The market walked away with an understanding that interest rates had two paths forward. The best case was flat for a longer period, or higher if inflation persists. About last year's address, Powell said "The message is the same: It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so."
Beyond Friday's event, it was a slow week with little volume and plenty of volatility. Second-quarter corporate 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Bond Yields Up, Stocks DownBy Bill Schmick,
02:57PM / Friday, August 18, 2023 | |
The seasonal influence of what is normally a weaker August through September continued this week. All the averages have declined since the end of July and will continue to do so in the weeks ahead.
My expected pullback in the equity averages continued this week. So far in August, the S&P 500 Index is down 5 percent, the NASDAQ has fallen 7 percent-plus, while the Dow Jones industrials outperformed with a 2.4 percent decline. There are several reasons investors could point to in explaining the pullback, but for me the reasoning is simple.
All the markets were extended beyond reason after a great first half of the year. The prices of the Magnificent Seven 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Big-Cap Tech Earnings Bolster MarketsBy Bill Schmick,
04:31PM / Friday, July 28, 2023 | |
Corporate earnings results for Google and Meta helped push the averages higher this week, while Microsoft results were somewhat disappointing. The net result was higher stock prices for many sectors of the markets.
The most interesting change that I perceived in the overall markets this week was the FOMC's lack of impact on financial markets. Over the past year, these monthly two-day Fed events were market-moving. Investors parsed every word of every sentence in the meeting notes and spent hours and even days interpreting every answer that Chair Jay Powell uttered in the Q&A session.
This week, the Fed raised Fed fund rates yet again to a 22-year 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Slowing Inflation Inflates StocksBy Bill Schmick,
05:27PM / Friday, July 21, 2023 | |
It appears the Federal Reserve Bank's long battle against inflation is showing some progress. This week, two key inflation measures indicated inflation rose at its slowest pace since March 2021. Investors celebrated the news.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose a mere 0.2 percent and only 3 percent over the prior year. Both measures were a bit better than economists were forecasting. If you strip out food and gas prices, the core CPI climbed 0.2 percent month over month and 4.8 percent over last year; again, slightly better than expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw some encouraging news. June's wholesale prices followed the CPI data lower. 0 Comments
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