@theMarket: December Will Be a Volatile Month for StocksBy Bill Schmick,
03:51PM / Friday, December 01, 2023 | |
Some of the 9 percent plus gains in the benchmark S&P 500 Index since October should be pared back in the week ahead. That doesn't mean Santa will thumb his nose at investors for the rest of the month. I am still expecting a traditional end-of-year rally.
Thanksgiving has come and gone, but stocks have hung in there as November ends. And while technology has marked time this week, we have seen basic materials, precious metals, industrial and financials come back to life.
The declining U.S. dollar is largely responsible for those gains. I don't think this upward momentum is over either. I am thinking that the greenback is going to continue to fall 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Bonds, Stocks Should Consolidate After Epic RunBy Bill Schmick,
04:31AM / Friday, November 10, 2023 | |
This stock market rally lasted nine straight days. That was more than enough to trigger some profit-taking.
"Too far, too fast" is my interpretation of the nine-day continuous climb in the equity and bond markets. The rally that started early last week continued this week, although it was clear to me that it is showing some signs of faltering.
And as has happened throughout the year, the Magnificent Seven group of stocks was the focus of most of the buying but on less and less volume. Since they represent such a large part of the indexes, it was not hard to see that the indexes were supported by a handful of stocks. However, the remaining 493 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Markets Down, Economy Up, What Gives?By Bill Schmick,
03:34PM / Friday, October 27, 2023 | |
Sometimes good news on Main Street is bad news for Wall Street. Let's start with the good news. The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years during the past three months. Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized pace of 4.9 percent blowing away economists' expectations of a 4.5 percent growth rate.
The resilient U.S. consumer continued to spend, which has boosted growth, defying those who have been expecting the economy to slow down under the weight of 18 months of interest rate hikes. The bad news is the stronger economy will make the Fed's fight against inflation that much more difficult and therein lies the rub for the 0 Comments
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@theMarket: If Bond Yields Continue Climb, Stocks Will FallBy Bill Schmick,
04:00PM / Saturday, October 21, 2023 | |
Investors sold stocks, as bond yields reached new multi-year highs. Third-quarter earnings are almost an afterthought in this climate, and geopolitical events did not help either.
The 10-year, U.S. Treasury bond hit the 5 percent mark. The 30-year bond has already broken through that number and then some. The higher yields climb, the more investors fear that they will rise even further. As it stands now, the return you can get by putting your money in bonds is becoming more and more attractive versus stocks.
This is happening despite the cessation of long-term bond auctions by the U.S. Treasury this week. Short-term bills and notes have been auctioned 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Are Stocks Close to a Bottom?By Bill Schmick,
10:05AM / Saturday, October 07, 2023 | |
As the market enters October, there is both good and bad news. The sell-off that started in September is continuing. The good news is that we should be close to the bottom.
Blame the waterfall decline in the price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, the continuing gains in the U.S. dollar, and the seasonal pattern in the equity market. Throw in the absolute mess in Washington and the market's free fall can be understood.
None of this should be new to readers because this is exactly what I predicted would happen back in August. I expected markets to correct into the second week of October and here we are with one week to go. The argument over government 0 Comments
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