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@theMarket: Blood in the Streets
By Bill Schmick,
03:06PM / Friday, February 25, 2022
It turns out that the president was correct in his warnings. Russia did invade Ukraine. Financial markets predictably crashed, but then rebounded. That's old news. What happens next?   In my last column, I wrote that the fate of the markets was in the hands of two big "ifs." One was an invasion of Ukraine by Russia. That has now occurred. That event broke the range the market was struggling to maintain on Thursday, Feb. 24. But by the end of the day Thursday the markets bounced back up big time. It was a classic investor behavior pattern of "sell the rumor, buy the news." Stocks fought to continue that bounce on Friday.   There is an old

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The Retired Investor: Investors Should Take a Deep Breath
By Bill Schmick,
04:24PM / Thursday, February 24, 2022
The war drums are beating. Oil and gas prices are soaring. Inflation is at a decades-long high. Bearish sentiment is exploding. And the stock market is giving investors angina. What to do?   Take a deep breath and remember that whatever the circumstances, this too shall pass. I know that is easy to say, but a longer-term perspective might prevent you from doing something foolish like selling into this downturn.   Let's address the present fear that today's geopolitical tension will somehow escalate into possibly WWIII. Sure, anything can happen, but is war the most probable outcome? The present reaction by the U.S. and its allies regarding Vladimir

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@theMarket: Stocks Trapped in a Box
By Bill Schmick,
04:23PM / Friday, February 18, 2022
Over the next three weeks, equities will likely trade in a wide range. The caveat to that forecast: if the Fed suddenly changes policy, or if a shooting war erupts in Ukraine. Those are two big ifs. Unfortunately, I can neither forecast when or what the next Fed head will say, nor predict Vladimir Putin's next move.   The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting occurs in mid-March. The latest CPI and PPI inflation data shows inflation accelerating at a rate much higher than economists and the Fed expected. It is all but certain, according to the bond market vigilantes, that the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at that time. As such, it is only a question

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The Retired Investor: The Grumpy Consumer
By Bill Schmick,
12:33PM / Thursday, February 17, 2022
You would think that the Americans would be feeling pretty good right now. Wages are increasing almost monthly. Workers have their pick of jobs in this tight labor market and the coronavirus seems to be peaking. So why are so many consumers unhappy?   Consumer sentiment numbers, as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, fell in preliminary February 2022 numbers to its lowest level in more than a decade. Back then in October 2011, the unemployment rate was more than double the present 4 percent rate.   In a January 2022 Gallup Poll, 72 percent of those surveyed thought it was a great time to find a quality job. That was the highest

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The Retired Investor: What About a Weekday Wedding?
By Bill Schmick,
04:12PM / Thursday, February 10, 2022
If they had their choice, most couples would want to get married on a Saturday. The problem is that there are just so many Saturdays in a year and tying the knot is a crowded trade this year.   Weddings, like so many other events that involve community gatherings, have suffered mightily during the pandemic. Postponements were about the best a couple could hope for during the worse of the COVID-19 crisis. Since then, bottlenecks, supply and labor shortages, not to mention the isolation required to safeguard against the coronavirus itself, have plagued wedding planners continuously. But, as virus fears begin to fade, there is suddenly a mad rush to get

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