After several years of price increases, consumers have come to expect that the typical Turkey Day dinner will cost more this year. Depending on how astute a shopper you are, you could get away with paying less this year.

 

Some items on your dinner agenda may be more expensive than in 2023 but others may have dropped in price. The price may also depend on where you shop and whether you insist on buying only name brands or are willing to buy store brands instead.

 

Every year since the COVID pandemic, grocery store prices and costs have been going up with the largest contributors to the cost being transportation, labor, and climate change. In 2020 (plus-3.5 percent), 2022 (plus-9.9 percent), and 2023 (5.8 percent) food prices rose and continue to go up. Overall, food prices are expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 2024.

 

And while the trend of rising prices still has not changed, what has changed is the consumer's willingness to pay higher and higher prices. To rein in food costs, shoppers are buying cheaper store brands over the last few years instead of name-brand food items.

 

You have probably noticed how store brands now have as much a share of shelf space as name-brand items. The trend has been a boon for supermarkets and the brightest light in the grocery food and nonfood business. Last year sales of store brands rose to $152 billion from $142.4 billion a year earlier, a 6.7 percent increase. The share of grocery shelves for store brands versus national brands rose to 26 percent from 25 percent last year. That is a historical record.

 

What does that have to do with the price of turkey? Plenty. A Thanksgiving dinner for 10, including turkey, stuffing, salad, cranberries, dinner rolls, and pumpkin pie would cost you $90 if using only name-brand labels. That is down 0.5 percent from last year. But if you only bought store-brand products, the total cost for the same dinner would be $73.

 

However, like everything, there is a catch. Store brands have done so well over the recent past, that grocers have started increasing prices. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute which tracks prices of Thanksgiving dinner staples, discovered that the gap between the cost of a full meal using generic brands and one prepared with national brands is narrowing. In several categories, the report found that name brands are less expensive or almost the same.

 

Fresh turkey prices, for example, are largely unchanged since last year, but name-brand birds (that still account for three out of four turkeys sold), fell in price by 2 percent since 2023. Store-brand turkeys, although still cheaper, have increased in price by almost 5 percent over the same time.

 

And yet name-brand stuffing is up 9 percent, compared to only 3 percent for store-brand versions. Name-brand cranberries fell by 3 percent, while store brands rose by 6 percent. In every category of the typical Thanksgiving dinner, there were substantial price differences between the two brands. That means shoppers need to compare prices closely.

 

In further good news for consumers, price wars have developed among grocers and others providing turkey dinner deals. Walmart, for example, is offering a 29-item dinner for eight for $55. Target has one that feeds four people for $20, while Aldi has a dinner for $47. Around here, one grocery chain offers a meal similar to Walmart's at twice the price. Most of these promotions are substantially less than last year's price tag.

 

My dog, Atreyu, and I love the holiday season. I just finished cooking my second 99 cents/pound turkey of the season. My wife, Barbara, only likes the drumsticks and wings, so I eat some of the white meat, freeze the rest, save the carcasses, and make turkey soup. The rest becomes healthy dog food for Atreyu.

 

Go ahead and laugh but consider this. The price range for a pound of popular healthy dog food at Walmart ranges from $1.92/pound to $5.67/pound.  Turkey is healthy and the cheapest protein around. It is on sale during the holidays for dogs and humans. The promotions are kicking in at this point. I intend to buy another turkey this week  (only 49 cents/pound) plus a large ham/shank at 79 pounds (pea and bean soup) and maybe a big spiral sliced ham (at 99 cents/pound). Bon appetit! 

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.