@theMarket: Wall Street Sees Another Positive Year AheadBy Bill Schmick,
04:11PM / Friday, December 27, 2024 | |
It is a time when financial strategists and economic experts forecast what will happen in the coming year. Since most of Wall Street is trying to sell you something, prepare for a positive outlook from most firms.
On practically the same date last year, I wrote that strategists were predicting the 2024 S&P 500 Index targets ranged from 4,200 to 5,500. Given that over a long period, the S&P 500 has delivered around 10.13 percent yearly returns since 1957, and 9.19 percent over the last 150 years, forecasts that mimic those returns should be ignored.
Those forecasts told me the authors had no idea where the market was going. As such, they just 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: The Billionaire Trump teamBy Bill Schmick,
04:15PM / Thursday, December 26, 2024 | |
Last week, billionaire Stephen Feinberg of the private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management was selected to fill the No. 2 spot at the Defense Department. That brings the number of billionaires who have agreed to join Donald Trump's second term to an even dozen. Should you be worried?
The wealth and business background of these individuals have sparked concerns that the next four years will favor business interests and those of the wealthy above all else. If we include Trump, Elon Musk, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the total thus far would be 15. At last count, U.S. News and World Report estimated that the total net worth of these billionaires as of Dec. 10 was more than 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Fed Backs Away from More Interest Rate CutsBy Bill Schmick,
10:45AM / Saturday, December 21, 2024 | |
The Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates again on Wednesday and reduced the number of interest rate cuts next year. That decision dismayed investors and triggered a run for the exits in the stock market. Will this government Grinch decision ruin the chances of a Santa Claus rally?
Wall Street labeled the central bank move a "hawkish cut." Prior to the meeting, most investors were expecting that the Fed would pause after this month's rate cut of 25 basis points. Given that events unfolded as expected, why did the Dow lose over 1,000 points in two hours?
Inflation is the short answer. You may recall in last week's column I 0 Comments
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The Retired Investor: Trump's 21st Century MercantilismBy Bill Schmick,
03:32PM / Friday, December 20, 2024 | |
Jan. 20 is just around the corner. It is Day One in the tariff wars that our next president is intent on launching. The corporate world is trying to dissuade him from that course of action, with no success.
It is an economic fact that the cost of tariffs is passed on to the consumer. If tariffs are high enough, some imported products simply cease to be available, which can cause supply chain interruptions. At some point, buyers balk at paying higher prices. When that happens, tariff costs hit business profit margins directly. Everyone loses.
In the last column, I explained why Donald Trump is adamant that tariffs are the only way to turn 0 Comments
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@theMarket: Stocks Shrug Off Rising InflationBy Bill Schmick,
11:40AM / Saturday, December 14, 2024 | |
New highs continue as equities ignore the inflation data and focus instead on the prospects of the next administration. Wall Street consensus is that the upside in stocks should continue at least until the new year.
As a contrarian investor, I often disagree with the consensus view but not this time. Last week I explained how global money flows usually support the markets and create the Santa Claus rally. This period of good cheer and higher prices should extend into mid-January.
This week, the most recent data on inflation confirmed my fears that we have not seen a bottom in inflation. Back in September, I predicted that inflation would begin to rise again, 0 Comments
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