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@theMarket: Moving Forward After Tumultuous Stock Market Week
By Bill Schmick,
04:22PM / Friday, September 30, 2022
Stocks have made new yearly lows this week as fears of declining corporate earnings, higher interest rates, and a climbing dollar sent investors running for the hills. As we enter October, another relief rally may be in the offing.   This week, the countertrend bounce I predicted in the early part of the week happened on Wednesday. It was triggered by events in the United Kingdom. A sell-off in the Gilts (bond) market over there had reached such epic proportions this week that the Bank of England stepped into calm markets. The UK bond market rallied a record 5.6 percent and the global markets rallied with it. The U.S markets bounced as well with the S&P 500 Index gaining

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@theMarket: Stocks Drop as Fed Delivers Same Dire Message
By Bill Schmick,
03:25PM / Friday, September 23, 2022
It was another "read my lips" moment for equity investors. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell out hawked the hawkish as he reiterated the Fed's tightening stance on monetary policy after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 21.   That should come as no surprise for those reading this column every week. A 75-basis-point hike, which was expected, was followed by a promise to continue raising interest rates higher, and longer than investors expected.   The eventual terminal rate where investors hope the tightening will be done, has now ratcheted higher to 4.6 percent. Expectations are now set for another 75-basis point increase in

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@theMarket: Consumer Price Index Triggers Market Decline
By Bill Schmick,
03:33PM / Friday, September 16, 2022
Sticky inflation, as represented by Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), caught most investors off guard. The resulting equity market rout drove the three main averages down over 4 percent. It was the worst market day in more than two years. Is the selling over?   I doubt it. The rampage lower spared few stocks. The dollar soared higher and most commodities as well as precious metals plummeted. That's what happens when you get everyone on one side of the rowboat.   Many analysts, traders, economists, and retail investors had bid up stocks in the days prior to the report in anticipation that the CPI would result in a cooler inflation print. The opposite

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@theMarket: September Is Tough Month for Equities
By Bill Schmick,
02:52PM / Friday, September 02, 2022
Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has lost ground in September more than 55 percent of the time. It looks like this year will be true to form.   It is called "The September Effect" and no one market or news event has been responsible for this anomaly. Some attribute the negative results to seasonal behavior bias. After a good summer of gains, like this summer’s bear market rally, investors make portfolio changes and cash in on their gains.   Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has booked a decline of 0.8 percent on average. If we go back further in history (since 1928), the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 1 percent decline during

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@theMarket: Bad News from Jackson Hole
By Bill Schmick,
04:11PM / Saturday, August 27, 2022
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell set investors straight at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium. He said the job of lowering inflation is not done, and that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to slow the economy.   "We must keep at it until the job is done," Powell said, during his speech.   That was enough to send stocks lower after a few days of gains. At the same time, the U.S. dollar fell, as did interest rate yields, which is somewhat counter intuitive given Powell's hawkish statement. The inflation data released on Friday morning showed a little progress on the fight against inflation. The Personal

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