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@theMarket: Look Out for a Bounce in the Stock Market
By Bill Schmick,
03:37PM / Friday, May 13, 2022
The bears are prowling the corroders of Wall Street. No one questions that, but rallies in downtrends can be breath-taking. Look for one of those short covering relief rallies in the coming week.   Do I know that will happen? Of course not, but when we get as oversold as we are now, the chances are high. If we do bounce in a relief rally it would trace out the first up to the center of my "W" pattern. The bounce won't last long, maybe for a few days or, at best, next week. And then down again. For those readers who may be hoping that at some point we will resume the bull markets of the last decade, give up that notion.   I fully expect another low

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@theMarket: Investors Grapple with Tightening Monetary Policy
By Bill Schmick,
06:06PM / Friday, May 06, 2022
Market participants heard from members of the Federal Reserve Bank this week. Their intention is clear: bringing down inflation will take precedence over everything else in the economy. The message went over like a lead balloon.   You would think that most investors would have received that message by now.  I know that I have been warning readers of this outcome since last year. But for most market participants this seems to be a shock given the positioning in the stock market this week. It was nothing short of tumultuous.   We started the week by retesting the lows we put in for the year. The S&P 500 Index hit 4,062 on Monday, May 2, just 10 points

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@theMarket: Earnings Matter, But Fed Trumps Everything
By Bill Schmick,
07:46PM / Friday, April 22, 2022
The first quarter 2022 earnings season kicked off this week with mixed results. Thus far, the standouts were Netflix and Tesla. The two companies' results could not have been more different, but in the end it didn't matter.   Netflix disappointed, reporting its first loss in subscribers in recent memory, while investors were expecting a gain in subscriber growth. There were many reasons for this including the loss of 700,000 Russian customers as a result of the Ukraine War. At last count, the stock lost 37 percent of its worth in three days and took the NASDAQ index down along with it.   Tesla, the eclectic vehicle darling, hit a homerun after the close

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@theMarket: Peak Inflation?
By Bill Schmick,
03:37PM / Friday, April 15, 2022
Inflation is climbing at the highest rate in 40 years. Gas prices at the pump are giving consumers a bad case of sticker shock and food, well we all know about that. So why are economists talking about peak inflation?   U.S. consumer inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reached 8.5 percent in March 2022. The producer Price Index, which measures the cost of inputs for companies, jumped to 11.2 percent in March. On the surface, both numbers are dreadful, but economists look behind the headline numbers for hints of what areas when up and what went down.   The month-to-month rate of core price increases slowed in March and declined for core

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@theMarket: The Fed Tightens Further
By Bill Schmick,
10:47AM / Saturday, April 09, 2022

It is called "Quantitative Tightening," or QT, a term used to describe how momentary authorities are planning to shrink a $8.9 trillion balance sheet. The U.S. Federal Reserve is the only central bank in the world (and in history) that has attempted to implement a reduction in assets. The first time they tried things did not go so well.

  "Quantitative Easing" or QE, may be a more familiar concept to readers, since we have been experiencing some form of QE (monetary stimulus) since the Financial Crisis of 2008. QT is the opposite. The Fed first tried to reduce its balance sheet back in 2018-2019. The stock market had such a hissy fit that the double-digit

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