|@theMarket: The Bottom Is In
09:08AM / Saturday, July 02, 2011
Well, we've made it through another pullback together. It seems clear to me that this week's stock market action is telling us that the worst is over — for now.
Yes, there are still a few dark clouds on the horizon. The closest one is the ongoing debate over increasing the nation's debt limit. Although I believe that in the end politicians will do the responsible thing and approve an increase, they are not beyond eleventh hour posturing. Few politicians can resist the chance to become the focus of the nation's attention by withholding their vote until all seems lost, only to relent at the last moment, thereby becoming our heroes. Disgusting? Yes, but that's what America's politics
Read More >>
|The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
03:11PM / Thursday, June 02, 2011
Readers should know by now that I'm a contrarian. The worse things seem to get, the more interested I become. Take Japan for example.
This island nation has suffered one economic bad spell after another for over 20 years. Japan is a depressing tale of economic and political mismanagement that has resulted in years of negative interest rates, a huge budget deficit, a stagnant economy, moribund stock market and a disillusioned and aging population. The massive earthquake and tsunami that triggered a nuclear disaster at a nuclear power plant in the eastern part of the country was seemingly the last straw that broke this country's back.
Japan is now officially in recession, which started
1 CommentRead More >>
|@theMarket: The Coast Is Clear
07:41PM / Friday, March 25, 2011
The stock market continues to be buffeted by bad news. Energy prices are climbing, war rages in Libya, Japan's nuclear crisis continues to radiate and Portugal's government resigned after failing to push through austerity measures intended to avert a financial crisis. The stock market simply shrugs it off and moves higher.
Pay attention readers. When markets continue to absorb negative news, the tea leaves tell me stocks are going higher. Last week, I wondered if the correction was over. The answer is yes. Some arcane variables I follow are flashing green. For example, market breath (the number of advancing stocks versus decliners) has made a sharp reversal over the last 10 days, which
Read More >>
|The Independent Investor: Who Pays for Japan?
|By Bill Schmick,
09:02AM / Friday, March 25, 2011
It appears that the ongoing disaster in Japan will not end up on the doorstep of the world’s insurance industry. Total damage estimates now range from $200 to $300 billion but insurers will “only” be saddled with 10 to 20 percent of those costs. That still makes it one of the costliest disasters in the history of the insurance sector and there are some nagging details that could cost them even more.
Considering the spate of natural disasters so far this year (New Zealand’s earthquake and Australia’s flooding), not to mention the wave of calamities since 2004, Hurricane Katrina, erupting volcanoes in Iceland,
Read More >>
|@theMarket: A Week to Forget
11:15AM / Saturday, March 19, 2011
In last week's market column, I warned readers of an impending decline of as much as 5 percent in the stock markets. I realize that not everyone receives both my columns each week. The important thing to know is that 4 percent of that drop has occurred but we may still have a re-test of the lows.
Over the last few days I have been making a lot of what I call "hand holding" calls. These conversations are meant to summarize the events in both Japan and the Middle East, explain how we are dealing with this crisis, and answer any questions people may have. I soon discovered that my clients (and people in general) have been subjected to a lot of misconceptions, misinformation
Read More >>